* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/25/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 28 35 43 52 59 65 71 80 88 96 103 111 112 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 28 35 43 52 59 65 71 80 88 96 103 111 112 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 37 43 51 60 74 86 97 105 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 6 4 5 6 8 6 10 6 3 3 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 10 11 6 2 3 -1 2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 49 40 38 31 42 35 7 359 348 21 46 57 132 32 121 66 98 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 136 131 135 138 140 136 135 135 132 134 136 138 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 136 136 131 135 138 140 136 135 135 132 134 136 138 138 138 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 69 66 63 65 69 72 69 67 68 68 71 68 73 73 76 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 11 12 12 14 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 20 26 36 46 54 64 64 58 69 65 91 99 103 88 79 200 MB DIV 49 15 -2 6 18 9 27 51 48 18 23 31 72 52 70 58 79 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 1 2 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 -4 3 1 0 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 1406 1374 1340 1316 1254 979 690 497 455 273 100 191 57 176 282 367 184 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.8 9.2 9.9 10.9 11.6 12.3 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.5 36.0 37.5 39.0 40.5 43.7 47.3 50.9 54.7 58.5 62.4 66.4 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 17 18 18 19 19 20 19 18 17 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 18 24 19 36 19 31 17 22 9 13 12 14 24 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 12. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 8. 15. 23. 32. 39. 45. 51. 60. 68. 76. 83. 91. 92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 34.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/25/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 14.1% 6.9% 4.9% 5.0% 13.1% 19.8% 31.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 25.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 4.5% 18.5% Consensus: 1.9% 13.1% 3.0% 1.8% 1.7% 4.7% 8.1% 16.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/25/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 24 28 35 43 52 59 65 71 80 88 96 103 111 112 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 25 32 40 49 56 62 68 77 85 93 100 108 109 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 21 28 36 45 52 58 64 73 81 89 96 104 105 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT