* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/25/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 51 57 64 71 82 87 96 99 105 108 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 51 57 64 71 82 87 96 96 102 105 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 27 30 33 39 46 56 68 78 85 94 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 14 11 12 6 7 4 8 5 6 10 2 4 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 8 10 3 5 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 45 43 39 34 32 40 15 352 15 348 50 83 125 94 139 211 130 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 138 137 137 136 139 140 141 137 135 131 132 133 136 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 138 137 137 136 139 140 141 137 135 131 132 133 136 140 142 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 71 67 66 68 73 72 65 67 67 69 68 72 73 74 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 14 11 12 11 11 10 12 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 16 13 22 48 50 59 63 58 50 63 68 72 89 93 78 200 MB DIV 73 53 24 1 17 8 -1 12 60 19 44 48 72 34 0 40 79 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 4 -3 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1421 1353 1304 1266 1247 1089 800 574 426 417 175 100 165 30 137 319 304 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.9 11.6 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.3 35.0 36.5 37.9 39.3 42.2 45.2 48.5 52.0 55.6 59.4 63.4 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 14 14 14 16 17 18 19 20 20 18 18 17 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 23 21 26 28 46 23 30 18 21 6 10 9 14 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -4. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 31. 37. 44. 51. 62. 67. 76. 79. 85. 88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 33.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/25/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 10.0% 3.9% 2.8% 2.8% 10.0% 15.3% 34.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 10.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 7.6% Consensus: 1.3% 6.9% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 3.4% 5.4% 14.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/25/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 51 57 64 71 82 87 96 96 102 105 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 32 39 49 55 62 69 80 85 94 94 100 103 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 34 44 50 57 64 75 80 89 89 95 98 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT