* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/24/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 36 46 54 65 69 77 84 95 101 107 110 116 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 36 46 54 65 69 77 84 95 101 107 110 116 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 32 38 46 56 67 78 89 96 101 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 14 15 12 8 4 1 8 4 3 7 5 11 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 1 -5 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 42 45 36 37 39 52 34 110 360 331 149 74 165 17 318 349 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 141 139 136 135 136 139 138 136 136 137 140 134 134 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 141 139 136 135 136 139 138 136 136 137 140 134 134 135 136 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.7 -54.1 -54.6 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 6 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 69 67 72 73 71 68 67 67 67 67 73 74 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 12 12 11 13 14 16 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 22 21 21 36 51 52 60 51 47 49 61 77 76 93 100 200 MB DIV 85 77 46 11 -9 13 0 19 50 41 30 62 72 67 35 48 45 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 1 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 1498 1408 1347 1301 1259 1207 1030 753 566 479 452 154 211 194 86 195 298 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.4 9.0 9.9 11.1 12.0 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.5 33.2 34.7 36.0 37.3 40.0 42.8 46.0 49.4 53.0 56.5 60.3 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 13 13 14 15 16 17 19 18 19 18 17 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 28 21 25 33 34 21 18 18 17 17 19 12 16 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 402 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -1. -3. -1. -1. 2. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 26. 34. 45. 49. 57. 64. 75. 81. 87. 90. 96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.7 31.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/24/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 11.7% 5.3% 2.7% 1.9% 5.4% 12.1% 23.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 19.4% 2.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 2.2% 6.6% Consensus: 1.8% 10.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.7% 1.9% 4.8% 10.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/24/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 27 30 36 46 54 65 69 77 84 95 101 107 110 116 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 27 33 43 51 62 66 74 81 92 98 104 107 113 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 37 45 56 60 68 75 86 92 98 101 107 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT