* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/24/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 54 66 71 79 86 96 101 105 109 116 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 54 66 71 79 86 96 101 105 109 116 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 40 47 54 62 73 87 98 105 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 5 5 4 7 3 1 4 3 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 3 6 7 11 7 6 2 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 52 54 53 52 47 28 40 27 319 356 341 80 25 146 253 240 295 SST (C) 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 147 143 140 138 137 133 137 137 136 132 137 141 142 142 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 147 143 140 138 137 133 137 137 136 132 137 141 142 142 141 142 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 73 70 68 71 69 67 67 68 70 70 70 73 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 15 13 14 13 14 13 15 15 19 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 27 25 26 29 50 52 56 53 48 47 53 55 77 95 91 200 MB DIV 81 85 75 52 26 10 14 17 60 61 36 44 40 65 30 56 48 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -5 -2 -1 0 -7 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1459 1557 1482 1411 1360 1286 1177 901 676 534 547 308 244 345 214 272 367 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.8 10.9 12.1 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 31.3 32.9 34.4 35.8 38.7 41.5 44.5 47.9 51.4 54.9 58.5 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 14 14 14 14 16 17 18 18 19 19 18 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 15 27 25 22 22 24 22 42 17 29 13 23 17 33 41 25 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 4. 4. 1. 2. 0. 2. 1. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 34. 46. 51. 59. 66. 76. 81. 85. 89. 96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 29.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/24/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 20.2% 9.2% 3.5% 2.3% 7.4% 14.1% 27.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 6.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 9.0% Consensus: 1.9% 9.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.8% 2.6% 5.2% 12.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/24/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 54 66 71 79 86 96 101 105 109 116 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 28 35 43 51 63 68 76 83 93 98 102 106 113 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 29 37 45 57 62 70 77 87 92 96 100 107 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT