* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 47 55 65 71 76 83 90 96 99 104 106 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 47 55 65 71 76 83 90 96 99 104 106 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 40 47 53 57 63 70 78 86 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 14 15 14 12 6 4 7 10 11 4 4 1 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 2 4 6 7 4 2 0 0 -5 -2 -3 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 56 56 58 58 51 41 47 47 336 302 313 343 316 336 252 350 257 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.8 27.6 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 146 142 138 135 135 129 136 134 126 128 134 139 145 142 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 146 142 138 135 135 129 136 134 126 128 134 139 145 142 137 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 73 73 69 71 72 68 67 66 66 68 70 73 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 12 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 23 26 25 32 42 49 49 48 41 41 40 44 59 70 91 200 MB DIV 110 91 98 81 58 17 20 17 28 48 42 28 50 61 86 65 59 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -7 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1283 1453 1553 1498 1429 1325 1257 1188 948 757 660 659 381 356 404 341 261 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.8 11.0 12.2 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.5 29.3 30.8 32.2 33.5 35.9 38.4 41.1 44.2 47.6 51.3 54.8 58.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 14 13 12 12 13 14 17 18 19 18 18 17 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 26 28 25 23 22 19 38 13 19 9 21 20 41 54 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 27. 35. 45. 51. 56. 63. 70. 76. 79. 84. 86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.5 27.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 21.9% 9.8% 4.3% 2.6% 9.8% 15.5% 28.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 15.4% 4.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 1.7% 3.4% Consensus: 2.7% 12.4% 4.6% 1.7% 1.0% 3.5% 5.7% 10.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/24/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 32 38 47 55 65 71 76 83 90 96 99 104 106 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 29 35 44 52 62 68 73 80 87 93 96 101 103 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 29 38 46 56 62 67 74 81 87 90 95 97 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT