* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 48 56 64 72 73 77 84 90 94 99 99 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 48 56 64 72 73 77 84 90 94 99 99 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 34 40 48 53 57 62 69 76 82 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 14 12 13 10 7 1 6 5 8 4 3 8 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 0 3 8 8 5 2 -1 -3 -5 -2 -4 -2 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 23 48 38 49 52 38 50 71 35 215 207 325 233 250 165 199 159 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.7 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.8 27.4 26.9 26.9 27.7 27.9 28.5 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 138 134 139 143 136 131 129 125 132 126 126 136 138 146 146 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 138 134 139 143 136 131 129 125 132 126 126 136 138 146 146 139 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 75 75 71 70 68 69 64 62 62 65 66 69 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 12 12 15 12 11 12 13 13 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 15 19 23 22 40 41 38 44 44 35 37 30 50 54 66 200 MB DIV 137 135 126 112 112 52 41 22 3 15 56 21 32 39 80 50 45 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 2 2 2 2 1 2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1087 1218 1347 1463 1566 1511 1434 1400 1236 986 823 783 534 389 380 317 256 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 30.5 32.9 35.5 38.4 41.7 45.5 49.3 53.2 57.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 12 13 13 15 17 20 19 20 19 19 16 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 19 13 17 24 21 12 15 10 9 17 6 27 21 43 65 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 5. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 28. 36. 44. 52. 53. 57. 64. 70. 74. 79. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.0 25.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 33.7% 18.1% 9.8% 4.8% 8.5% 8.3% 11.6% Bayesian: 2.6% 9.2% 3.9% 1.0% 0.8% 2.1% 4.0% 1.5% Consensus: 4.2% 14.3% 7.3% 3.6% 1.9% 3.5% 4.1% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/24/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 30 34 41 48 56 64 72 73 77 84 90 94 99 99 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 37 44 52 60 68 69 73 80 86 90 95 95 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 31 38 46 54 62 63 67 74 80 84 89 89 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT