* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 20 24 28 36 44 53 62 69 74 78 84 90 95 99 102 V (KT) LAND 15 17 20 24 28 36 44 53 62 69 74 78 84 90 95 99 102 V (KT) LGEM 15 15 16 17 18 21 23 26 30 37 43 47 52 59 66 74 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 12 14 10 12 7 3 1 7 6 5 5 2 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 0 0 8 7 8 2 2 -4 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 28 24 44 40 48 52 45 70 94 211 192 286 326 238 132 175 354 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.9 28.3 27.5 27.3 26.8 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 141 134 136 142 132 130 124 130 128 125 133 136 142 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 141 134 136 142 132 130 124 130 128 125 133 136 142 145 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -55.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 76 75 76 75 69 69 68 66 62 61 61 66 67 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 12 12 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 12 17 18 23 32 40 39 42 46 37 35 40 37 61 61 200 MB DIV 107 140 139 119 114 78 52 26 4 7 57 42 23 46 71 79 55 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -2 0 0 3 0 4 2 3 0 -2 0 -2 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 917 1028 1150 1273 1393 1610 1515 1447 1403 1112 906 783 669 406 433 346 324 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.7 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.5 12.3 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.7 26.1 27.5 28.8 31.3 33.9 36.7 39.9 43.6 47.6 51.5 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 14 15 17 19 20 20 19 19 18 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 24 30 23 13 13 22 13 9 12 19 6 11 15 24 29 48 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 22. 28. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 38. 47. 54. 59. 63. 69. 75. 80. 84. 87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 7.0 23.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.3% 49.7% 30.2% 23.7% 14.9% 20.9% 18.2% 21.5% Bayesian: 3.4% 13.5% 9.1% 2.4% 1.5% 3.6% 5.2% 0.9% Consensus: 6.2% 21.1% 13.1% 8.7% 5.5% 8.2% 7.8% 7.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 17 20 24 28 36 44 53 62 69 74 78 84 90 95 99 102 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT