* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 10/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 39 38 39 44 49 51 53 50 44 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 39 38 39 44 49 51 53 50 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 23 22 21 19 19 22 26 30 34 37 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 18 24 23 23 28 28 28 10 12 10 7 17 18 32 60 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 2 2 8 2 -3 -4 2 -3 -5 2 1 2 -12 SHEAR DIR 246 220 226 234 240 242 241 235 262 7 49 353 335 268 244 238 263 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.9 26.9 26.4 24.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 134 133 130 123 123 123 124 126 131 132 137 125 123 108 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 130 127 124 115 114 112 113 116 122 121 121 108 113 102 85 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -55.6 -56.3 -56.7 -56.4 -56.7 -56.6 -56.7 -56.8 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 63 64 62 65 65 61 54 54 53 52 60 58 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 14 15 16 13 11 13 13 13 13 11 12 15 850 MB ENV VOR 65 59 66 62 69 53 19 0 -6 -16 -24 -25 -41 -38 -72 -85 -81 200 MB DIV 107 85 91 98 107 88 11 53 -9 0 7 12 8 46 70 71 25 700-850 TADV -4 0 4 5 10 17 31 33 6 -3 -7 -8 -4 8 -2 9 -27 LAND (KM) 1305 1375 1451 1533 1610 1697 1782 1904 2141 2451 2164 1915 1691 1422 1048 890 1400 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.6 19.5 21.6 23.8 25.5 27.0 28.4 29.8 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.6 30.3 31.0 31.7 32.3 33.2 34.2 35.4 37.6 40.7 44.7 48.8 52.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 12 12 15 17 20 18 14 14 27 37 42 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 14 13 14 4 3 3 6 5 15 12 16 8 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -14. -21. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 13. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 25. 19. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 29.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 10/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 10.2% 6.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 12.7% 6.5% 3.7% 1.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.7% 4.5% 3.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 10/04/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 39 38 39 44 49 51 53 50 44 40 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 33 36 37 36 37 42 47 49 51 48 42 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 31 32 31 32 37 42 44 46 43 37 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 24 25 24 25 30 35 37 39 36 30 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT