* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 10/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 40 43 48 47 46 41 38 39 41 44 45 45 45 41 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 40 43 48 47 46 41 38 39 41 44 45 45 45 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 39 42 41 36 30 28 28 31 37 43 47 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 12 20 20 22 28 33 32 12 15 2 16 11 19 31 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 1 0 4 7 7 -3 -1 0 5 -4 -4 1 5 7 SHEAR DIR 308 324 218 229 237 226 237 233 258 304 1 67 338 315 277 232 243 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.3 24.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 135 131 127 121 118 121 121 126 129 129 124 120 110 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 133 130 124 119 113 109 110 111 116 119 116 109 108 102 92 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -55.3 -56.0 -56.8 -56.9 -57.0 -57.1 -57.1 -57.3 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 2 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 61 65 64 61 65 66 60 56 54 52 55 63 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 15 13 13 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 64 72 67 67 61 69 28 10 -30 -25 -42 -39 -67 -66 -101 -114 -104 200 MB DIV 117 130 119 109 90 99 54 17 14 12 -14 18 -13 15 28 80 49 700-850 TADV -6 -6 0 2 5 9 6 44 26 7 -7 -6 -13 -4 0 16 -37 LAND (KM) 1261 1322 1377 1439 1495 1590 1644 1699 1836 2078 2418 2144 1858 1596 1262 1006 1258 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.0 17.7 19.6 22.1 24.2 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.7 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.4 34.7 36.9 40.1 44.0 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 11 13 13 14 17 19 17 14 20 32 38 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 12 13 11 11 3 1 2 4 7 11 8 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 0. -0. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 18. 17. 16. 11. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 29.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 10/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.7% 10.3% 8.0% 5.6% 9.5% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 15.0% 31.9% 22.4% 12.7% 2.5% 7.1% 2.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 13.9% 0.5% 4.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 16.4% 12.5% 7.4% 3.0% 5.8% 4.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 10/04/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 40 43 48 47 46 41 38 39 41 44 45 45 45 41 18HR AGO 30 29 33 35 38 43 42 41 36 33 34 36 39 40 40 40 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 35 34 29 26 27 29 32 33 33 33 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 27 26 21 18 19 21 24 25 25 25 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT