* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 10/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 46 49 48 42 38 37 39 43 44 45 44 37 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 46 49 48 42 38 37 39 43 44 45 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 36 36 33 28 24 23 25 29 35 39 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 10 20 23 29 32 39 27 15 8 15 15 17 27 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 0 1 4 8 0 -4 -6 -5 -7 -2 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 261 264 251 207 219 238 230 232 240 266 301 354 306 330 279 225 242 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.9 27.0 27.2 26.9 26.4 23.5 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 135 129 121 118 120 120 125 127 129 124 121 103 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 134 130 123 112 109 110 109 115 116 116 109 109 98 83 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.8 -55.9 -56.6 -57.1 -56.9 -57.4 -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 62 61 64 64 65 65 61 55 57 56 56 60 58 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 15 15 15 12 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 58 67 70 70 65 68 52 20 -10 -12 -27 -39 -46 -67 -78 -108 -109 200 MB DIV 126 126 140 132 142 97 86 17 16 6 3 0 23 9 40 87 38 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -2 2 11 9 26 34 7 -2 -1 -5 -5 5 -19 -33 LAND (KM) 1168 1237 1298 1354 1429 1578 1654 1709 1794 1988 2295 2163 1866 1574 1249 981 1417 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.7 14.7 15.7 17.6 19.6 21.7 24.0 25.9 27.6 29.2 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.0 28.8 29.5 30.1 30.8 32.0 32.8 33.5 34.3 36.0 38.8 42.3 45.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 12 12 13 17 18 16 14 21 38 44 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 13 14 11 3 0 2 3 6 9 10 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 24. 23. 17. 13. 12. 14. 18. 19. 20. 19. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 28.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 10/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.76 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.8% 10.3% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 13.4% 35.4% 22.4% 12.8% 2.5% 8.0% 4.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 10.5% 3.5% 6.9% 2.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 18.6% 13.2% 7.8% 1.3% 3.0% 4.5% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 10/04/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 37 40 46 49 48 42 38 37 39 43 44 45 44 37 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 35 41 44 43 37 33 32 34 38 39 40 39 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 34 37 36 30 26 25 27 31 32 33 32 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 27 26 20 16 15 17 21 22 23 22 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT