* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 10/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 48 46 42 40 42 46 47 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 48 46 42 40 42 46 47 47 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 34 32 29 25 24 25 29 32 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 1 6 17 16 25 38 44 22 11 9 23 21 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 5 -1 -1 6 12 7 -3 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 291 271 337 351 191 228 216 231 236 252 265 318 299 314 312 289 244 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.1 25.9 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 137 138 134 129 121 118 121 120 126 127 127 116 117 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 135 134 135 128 121 113 109 111 110 115 115 112 101 105 94 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -55.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -55.2 -56.1 -56.5 -56.9 -57.0 -57.3 -57.1 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 63 63 65 65 64 67 69 62 57 56 57 59 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 65 67 65 67 58 68 31 18 -27 -10 -31 -41 -72 -75 -126 -131 200 MB DIV 88 112 128 137 133 138 97 72 19 -5 24 7 20 -18 9 41 53 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -7 -8 -3 4 6 9 48 43 39 10 3 -1 2 4 6 LAND (KM) 1171 1252 1310 1365 1404 1504 1594 1649 1699 1803 2021 2333 2077 1762 1471 1182 1174 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.9 13.8 15.5 17.3 19.3 21.7 23.9 26.1 28.0 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.7 28.6 29.3 30.0 30.5 31.5 32.2 32.7 33.4 34.4 36.3 39.1 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 13 14 17 17 15 14 22 33 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 7 10 11 11 4 0 2 3 9 7 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -10. -10. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 22. 23. 21. 17. 15. 17. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 27.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 10/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 26.1% 17.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 21.9% 49.3% 40.7% 26.9% 5.5% 10.0% 5.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 7.9% 0.4% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 11.6% 25.3% 20.7% 12.7% 2.1% 3.6% 5.6% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 10/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 48 46 42 40 42 46 47 47 47 46 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 40 44 45 43 39 37 39 43 44 44 44 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 34 38 39 37 33 31 33 37 38 38 38 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 28 29 27 23 21 23 27 28 28 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT