* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 08/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 37 39 42 45 48 51 54 56 60 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 37 39 42 45 48 51 54 56 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 25 28 31 35 38 42 45 50 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 37 34 32 27 20 14 12 12 9 7 19 8 14 10 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -4 -4 -3 -4 3 0 0 0 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 40 36 30 20 14 347 288 271 272 205 182 184 228 215 293 268 340 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 151 151 137 135 137 140 150 155 155 157 157 162 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 122 129 130 119 117 119 124 135 145 146 148 145 147 152 154 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.0 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 48 44 42 41 38 35 35 39 43 43 44 47 53 54 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -58 -47 -40 -36 -41 -39 -23 -37 -23 -3 31 19 35 8 1 -4 200 MB DIV -8 -8 -33 -4 18 -23 -10 -10 10 8 36 6 -1 3 -1 1 10 700-850 TADV 1 1 -3 -4 0 -5 -6 -7 -5 -4 0 -6 0 -3 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1633 1685 1745 1717 1626 1447 1284 1136 990 861 680 525 389 276 145 41 8 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.1 30.5 29.8 29.0 27.6 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.5 24.0 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.1 54.2 54.4 54.8 55.8 56.9 58.2 59.9 61.8 64.7 67.8 71.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 11 15 15 14 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 25 26 22 25 18 26 40 33 34 72 53 66 53 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.6 54.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 08/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.1% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.6% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.3% 1.2% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 08/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 08/29/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 37 39 42 45 48 51 54 56 60 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 31 32 34 36 39 42 45 48 51 53 57 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 27 29 31 34 37 40 43 46 48 52 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 22 24 27 30 33 36 39 41 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT