* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 08/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 41 45 48 51 54 58 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 41 45 48 51 54 51 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 26 29 32 36 39 42 48 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 37 37 32 32 25 18 14 10 5 15 15 15 16 6 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -9 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 2 0 -2 -2 0 1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 40 39 36 30 20 5 321 293 308 333 189 156 175 137 114 97 37 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.7 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 151 156 151 152 144 141 146 152 154 155 156 154 163 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 122 124 127 134 129 132 124 124 130 141 145 148 146 143 149 171 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -54.9 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 45 43 41 37 37 40 42 42 43 43 46 48 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -66 -50 -39 -32 -47 -38 -36 -31 -16 3 19 28 35 36 23 -20 200 MB DIV -29 -14 -5 -42 -5 7 -16 -18 0 22 4 9 -19 8 -17 17 -3 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 -3 -4 0 -9 -3 -7 -3 -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1564 1605 1655 1715 1698 1524 1352 1196 1059 903 711 533 306 215 81 0 -24 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 31.8 31.3 30.7 29.9 28.4 27.1 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.3 23.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 54.3 54.4 54.5 54.8 55.6 56.6 57.8 59.1 60.9 63.1 66.3 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 9 8 8 6 7 9 14 15 15 12 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 21 27 27 36 24 22 35 32 37 62 49 40 52 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 33. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.2 54.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 08/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 7.0% 5.4% 11.8% 6.2% 7.8% 4.2% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.7% 1.8% 3.9% 2.1% 2.6% 1.4% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 08/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 08/29/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 41 45 48 51 54 51 39 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 31 32 33 34 36 38 42 45 48 51 48 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 40 43 46 43 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 36 39 36 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT