* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 08/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 35 34 34 33 35 37 39 41 45 50 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 35 34 34 33 35 37 39 41 45 50 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 25 26 28 29 31 34 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 39 40 37 34 30 21 18 16 16 13 17 27 13 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -9 -9 -5 -5 -5 -3 4 2 2 2 -4 -4 -7 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 39 41 37 29 12 330 273 268 266 212 204 182 184 194 48 57 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.5 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 30.6 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 149 150 154 153 152 147 140 143 152 152 156 157 160 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 121 123 125 130 132 130 126 120 125 135 141 148 149 151 171 161 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -55.7 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 -55.2 -55.2 -54.5 -54.5 -53.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 47 44 41 38 37 41 44 48 48 48 47 50 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -71 -67 -38 -30 -36 -19 -31 -23 -38 -14 -6 13 0 14 -7 15 200 MB DIV -27 -37 -12 -10 -45 0 -38 2 -17 3 14 14 16 -2 -37 -22 -38 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 -2 1 -4 -6 -6 -6 -3 -5 -10 -4 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1536 1567 1620 1667 1733 1577 1418 1283 1180 1061 951 792 626 478 337 183 83 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.1 31.6 31.1 30.4 28.9 27.5 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.3 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 54.5 54.5 54.7 54.9 55.4 56.1 56.8 57.7 59.2 61.0 63.7 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 9 7 6 5 7 10 15 17 16 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 21 21 24 27 33 33 22 23 42 34 36 65 66 85 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. -21. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 20. 25. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.4 54.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 08/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.9% 2.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 08/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 08/29/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 32 34 35 34 34 33 35 37 39 41 45 50 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 31 32 31 31 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 27 26 26 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 18 18 17 19 21 23 25 29 34 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT