* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 08/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 36 35 34 34 36 38 39 40 40 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 36 35 34 34 36 38 39 40 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 35 37 34 30 26 19 21 19 19 19 11 18 17 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -7 -8 -6 -5 -4 3 1 3 -2 -3 -2 0 -5 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 51 38 39 41 38 15 353 299 267 252 240 263 293 291 241 249 232 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 151 152 156 150 153 149 148 152 155 153 154 155 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 120 125 126 132 129 130 125 127 132 135 133 134 135 135 133 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 47 48 49 47 44 41 40 39 48 50 56 62 63 63 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -63 -66 -52 -34 -19 -21 -18 -32 -36 -56 -52 -40 -34 -16 -10 -20 200 MB DIV 2 -23 -35 -14 -11 -7 3 -10 -7 0 25 -7 29 20 27 15 40 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 2 2 -2 1 -6 -2 -5 1 1 3 -10 0 -12 0 LAND (KM) 1502 1498 1530 1579 1639 1680 1511 1382 1286 1227 1192 1174 1177 1150 1004 836 691 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.7 32.4 31.9 31.3 30.0 28.5 27.4 26.8 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.6 54.7 54.7 54.8 54.9 55.2 55.9 56.5 57.2 58.2 59.5 61.2 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 6 6 8 7 5 4 6 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 22 21 27 28 35 30 25 29 35 23 23 32 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.7 54.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 08/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 1.9% 2.3% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 08/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 08/28/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 36 35 34 34 36 38 39 40 40 42 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 32 33 34 33 32 32 34 36 37 38 38 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 28 29 28 27 27 29 31 32 33 33 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 21 20 19 19 21 23 24 25 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT