* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 08/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 35 33 32 32 34 36 38 39 41 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 35 33 32 32 34 36 38 39 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 27 29 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 31 36 39 33 30 22 21 20 19 14 13 15 20 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -6 -10 -3 -5 -2 4 3 5 5 2 0 -2 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 47 42 37 37 40 28 7 330 294 286 279 264 284 233 231 212 197 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 151 153 154 154 152 149 146 147 152 152 151 155 158 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 116 123 126 129 132 129 127 124 126 133 136 136 143 146 153 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.3 -55.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 44 46 48 49 48 46 45 42 42 44 48 50 53 54 53 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -68 -59 -66 -53 -28 -28 -8 -23 -20 -37 -25 -20 1 3 17 9 200 MB DIV -8 -7 -27 -32 -8 -37 4 -34 -11 -32 9 26 11 25 13 -4 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -1 1 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -12 -7 -10 0 LAND (KM) 1495 1478 1475 1517 1570 1685 1582 1428 1307 1226 1152 1085 967 885 719 612 426 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.8 32.8 32.4 31.9 30.7 29.2 27.8 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.8 55.0 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.3 55.7 56.3 56.9 57.6 58.7 60.1 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 4 6 7 8 6 5 4 6 8 11 12 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 23 23 24 28 31 33 26 24 38 48 26 37 46 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -11. -15. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.7 54.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 08/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 5.2% 4.1% 4.4% 1.9% 2.9% 2.5% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.9% 1.4% 1.5% 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 08/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 08/28/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 35 33 32 32 34 36 38 39 41 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 32 33 33 31 30 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 28 28 26 25 25 27 29 31 32 34 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 20 18 17 17 19 21 23 24 26 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT