* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 08/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 34 35 34 34 33 35 36 38 39 42 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 34 35 34 34 33 35 36 38 39 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 24 26 27 28 29 31 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 27 30 34 35 30 24 15 17 21 16 21 15 21 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -7 -4 2 2 3 0 1 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 47 47 44 39 37 34 12 1 285 256 251 258 244 223 240 223 232 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 150 151 152 151 154 142 137 140 148 151 153 153 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 119 121 123 127 130 133 123 117 121 129 131 135 135 134 134 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 40 44 46 46 47 47 46 43 41 40 47 50 51 56 55 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -77 -72 -64 -69 -46 -32 -18 -6 -17 -5 -14 -10 12 0 5 -1 200 MB DIV -32 -5 -5 -25 -39 -10 -18 1 -31 -12 2 44 16 29 -18 11 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 2 -2 1 -5 -2 -3 2 0 0 -9 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1551 1528 1519 1537 1579 1672 1547 1383 1246 1142 1063 996 939 868 839 771 711 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.1 31.7 30.6 29.1 27.5 26.2 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.1 55.4 55.5 55.5 55.8 56.1 56.6 57.1 57.8 58.8 60.1 61.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 5 7 9 7 6 4 5 6 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 21 21 21 24 28 35 27 21 22 34 46 36 32 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.2 54.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 08/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 5.3% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 4.7% 3.9% 3.5% 1.3% 2.5% 1.3% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 08/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 08/28/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 34 34 35 34 34 33 35 36 38 39 42 45 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 32 32 33 32 32 31 33 34 36 37 40 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 27 28 27 27 26 28 29 31 32 35 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 19 20 19 19 18 20 21 23 24 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT