* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 06/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 30 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 30 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 19 20 19 18 25 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 25 33 33 41 36 39 39 46 39 43 41 26 12 22 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 0 3 -4 -7 -2 -5 -4 1 -1 10 1 0 -4 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 311 319 324 318 315 306 298 292 275 282 285 305 313 334 282 257 250 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.2 22.8 20.9 20.1 18.3 17.2 16.1 15.5 16.2 15.0 16.3 16.7 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 114 109 101 94 87 86 82 80 77 74 74 70 69 70 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 100 96 90 86 81 82 79 78 74 71 70 66 64 65 67 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.8 -57.6 -57.5 -57.9 -58.7 -59.0 -58.4 -58.0 -58.0 -58.1 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 62 67 73 62 54 53 58 61 66 57 50 44 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 4 11 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -55 -41 -22 -7 1 -36 -76 -90 -90 -88 -50 -43 -102 -121 -100 -88 200 MB DIV 17 23 -18 -5 12 1 3 0 30 15 7 35 28 -14 -35 21 14 700-850 TADV 7 3 -4 -4 9 -18 16 -12 -8 2 -17 52 52 16 0 7 19 LAND (KM) 891 965 1051 1153 1250 1243 1214 1118 1410 1686 892 372 126 -175 -301 -338 -347 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.7 32.1 33.5 35.7 37.5 39.3 41.5 43.8 45.5 47.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.9 66.8 65.6 64.2 62.6 59.1 54.1 47.6 39.0 29.5 20.1 12.2 5.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 20 25 31 37 38 33 26 23 15 8 9 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 2. -6. -14. -23. -32. -39. -47. -56. -57. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -1. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -3. -9. -14. -13. -25. -35. -43. -43. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.0 67.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 06/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 06/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 06/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT