* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922022 06/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 27 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 27 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 20 17 21 25 34 40 49 45 39 50 37 33 28 18 11 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -9 -1 2 -4 -1 -1 -6 1 2 8 10 2 4 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 291 309 316 318 315 311 309 310 302 308 306 311 317 316 336 315 115 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.1 23.7 21.3 20.5 19.1 16.7 16.6 16.7 16.9 16.7 19.7 21.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 118 112 107 98 88 86 84 79 79 77 75 73 78 81 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 104 102 98 94 88 82 81 80 77 76 73 71 69 71 71 70 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -55.6 -55.8 -56.4 -57.1 -57.0 -57.9 -57.9 -57.5 -57.1 -57.2 -57.4 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 60 63 72 69 57 59 61 64 63 56 51 48 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 4 3 7 8 15 12 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -41 -46 -38 -17 -4 -14 -49 -85 -71 -82 -89 -76 -95 -87 -72 -59 200 MB DIV -27 19 23 -11 -22 -14 1 4 -13 6 8 2 0 -17 -30 2 0 700-850 TADV 2 8 3 -6 -4 -4 1 13 27 -27 17 32 11 -16 0 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 831 886 975 1070 1166 1247 1194 1067 1137 1655 1238 533 29 -299 -153 -22 66 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.8 32.9 35.0 37.2 39.2 40.9 42.2 42.5 42.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 67.8 66.6 65.3 64.0 60.8 56.8 51.2 43.6 34.1 24.2 15.6 9.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 13 16 23 27 35 38 35 28 21 16 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 834 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 4. -6. -15. -25. -34. -41. -46. -52. -54. -52. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -4. -3. 5. 1. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 7. 1. -7. -11. -17. -15. -22. -35. -34. -31. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.9 68.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922022 INVEST 06/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922022 INVEST 06/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922022 INVEST 06/03/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 27 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 24 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT