* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 40 48 60 71 80 77 75 74 77 82 84 86 86 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 32 34 44 56 67 76 65 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 30 31 38 47 58 69 74 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 8 11 16 7 11 12 14 16 15 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -5 -6 0 -4 -5 0 1 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 333 330 323 327 337 17 93 58 69 55 93 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 163 162 160 165 162 162 162 168 168 163 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 165 163 162 160 165 162 162 159 168 168 163 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 7 6 7 8 5 5 4 5 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 74 73 77 79 82 82 83 84 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 12 11 12 15 18 20 17 14 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 51 47 55 85 91 96 111 105 164 133 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 101 117 74 44 69 117 130 116 134 149 157 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -1 0 2 2 6 2 2 0 -1 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 91 106 25 -7 -10 179 319 371 195 -11 -191 -100 -141 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 11 9 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 45 53 38 32 44 34 33 33 43 15 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 3. -1. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 18. 30. 41. 50. 47. 45. 44. 47. 52. 54. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 66.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.88 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 28.1% 15.8% 9.1% 6.8% 11.7% 19.7% 36.3% Logistic: 20.7% 60.8% 40.7% 22.8% 15.3% 42.0% 63.6% 83.3% Bayesian: 4.9% 36.9% 10.0% 1.6% 1.0% 11.2% 22.7% 72.6% Consensus: 10.6% 41.9% 22.1% 11.2% 7.7% 21.6% 35.3% 64.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/06/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 32 34 44 56 67 76 65 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 29 31 41 53 64 73 62 37 28 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 26 36 48 59 68 57 32 23 20 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 32 44 55 64 53 28 19 16 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT