* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 38 45 57 71 83 88 86 82 87 86 86 84 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 38 45 57 71 83 88 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 48 60 75 85 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 7 9 13 8 9 11 16 19 18 14 16 13 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 2 1 0 -7 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 279 301 328 314 300 344 351 54 78 66 70 64 88 111 129 86 108 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.5 30.0 29.4 29.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 167 167 167 169 166 160 163 160 170 159 165 143 139 134 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 163 167 167 167 169 166 160 163 159 170 159 164 137 133 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 7 7 9 6 6 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 72 73 75 76 77 80 80 81 82 86 87 87 81 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 10 10 11 15 18 22 23 21 16 16 13 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 49 51 52 70 92 93 113 111 157 170 129 117 106 103 105 200 MB DIV 63 66 97 118 89 73 84 133 137 136 161 172 138 127 87 58 45 700-850 TADV -5 -5 0 0 1 3 3 0 0 -1 -5 -7 0 8 4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 109 112 145 62 15 75 237 430 278 43 -184 -144 -96 -152 -68 -142 -177 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 15 13 12 10 11 12 13 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 30 45 57 46 39 49 31 35 36 8 4 33 8 11 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 12. 13. 9. 1. -0. -4. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 15. 27. 41. 53. 58. 56. 52. 57. 56. 56. 54. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 64.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 17.0% 10.2% 7.9% 5.9% 10.3% 12.2% 35.1% Logistic: 9.9% 51.4% 33.3% 21.8% 11.2% 31.2% 44.3% 71.9% Bayesian: 2.0% 15.0% 7.3% 1.0% 0.8% 6.7% 22.5% 39.2% Consensus: 5.3% 27.8% 16.9% 10.2% 6.0% 16.1% 26.3% 48.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/06/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 38 45 57 71 83 88 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 35 42 54 68 80 85 46 31 26 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 37 49 63 75 80 41 26 21 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 42 56 68 73 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT