* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 47 56 68 79 92 98 105 100 101 95 91 86 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 31 34 45 57 68 81 87 94 87 73 43 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 29 35 40 50 63 80 95 101 95 79 44 47 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 12 6 13 10 11 10 12 8 13 15 7 6 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -3 -2 -5 -1 -2 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 283 322 360 6 346 7 345 68 20 48 46 56 74 149 19 56 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 169 170 170 172 168 162 157 161 160 162 162 155 153 143 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 163 169 170 170 172 168 162 154 157 157 162 162 154 150 137 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 8 7 8 6 5 4 5 5 6 4 5 3 6 700-500 MB RH 70 73 74 74 74 75 77 77 81 81 79 78 80 81 84 83 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 17 20 28 30 32 25 22 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 45 51 63 73 86 91 98 108 102 116 158 104 102 90 101 200 MB DIV 57 63 62 91 110 63 93 101 146 127 123 154 152 128 125 81 111 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -2 0 1 4 5 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -5 4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 89 89 88 16 -39 -7 90 221 357 378 231 11 84 -32 0 31 -107 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.8 15.0 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.4 65.7 67.1 68.3 69.5 71.9 74.3 76.4 78.2 79.6 81.1 83.1 85.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 7 8 9 13 15 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 39 46 39 40 32 30 28 33 36 39 41 28 31 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 13. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 4. 8. 17. 20. 22. 11. 7. -0. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 26. 38. 49. 62. 68. 75. 70. 71. 65. 61. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 64.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.92 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 17.2% 10.3% 8.0% 6.0% 10.8% 12.3% 34.4% Logistic: 6.1% 28.7% 15.5% 8.6% 3.3% 13.9% 27.2% 50.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 16.6% 6.1% 0.8% 0.9% 3.9% 7.1% 37.3% Consensus: 3.9% 20.8% 10.6% 5.8% 3.4% 9.5% 15.5% 40.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/06/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 31 34 45 57 68 81 87 94 87 73 43 42 32 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 29 32 43 55 66 79 85 92 85 71 41 40 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 24 27 38 50 61 74 80 87 80 66 36 35 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 16 19 30 42 53 66 72 79 72 58 28 27 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT