* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 40 48 57 64 75 80 87 88 93 91 90 87 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 30 40 48 55 67 71 78 55 55 46 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 29 35 41 49 59 70 77 56 53 48 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 9 11 9 17 11 12 9 14 14 18 14 16 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 297 234 255 307 341 313 7 12 16 88 88 89 61 68 84 116 79 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 169 170 172 172 166 158 160 160 157 157 154 156 161 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 163 169 170 172 172 166 156 157 157 154 154 150 151 156 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 7 9 7 9 6 7 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 73 74 74 76 76 76 76 79 76 77 76 82 82 84 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 9 10 9 11 11 13 18 19 20 17 17 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 44 44 42 47 60 78 83 90 101 94 126 128 147 110 101 100 200 MB DIV 63 66 71 52 73 60 68 102 112 95 110 119 120 148 113 119 119 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 1 1 4 1 1 0 -1 -4 -6 2 9 8 LAND (KM) 78 70 93 63 44 -2 46 168 329 438 280 75 -48 41 -58 -144 -80 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 64.2 65.5 66.8 68.0 70.4 72.9 75.1 77.1 78.9 80.6 82.5 84.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 24 33 44 46 34 37 35 33 41 34 38 29 33 4 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 6. 13. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 43. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 4. 5. 7. 1. -0. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 27. 34. 45. 50. 57. 58. 63. 61. 60. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 62.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 23.5% 12.6% 9.0% 6.8% 11.6% 12.3% 27.2% Logistic: 10.9% 39.8% 24.5% 18.0% 9.5% 38.9% 45.7% 59.7% Bayesian: 4.6% 39.0% 15.8% 3.5% 1.0% 14.7% 12.5% 47.7% Consensus: 6.9% 34.1% 17.6% 10.2% 5.8% 21.7% 23.5% 44.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/05/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 36 30 40 48 55 67 71 78 55 55 46 33 29 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 34 28 38 46 53 65 69 76 53 53 44 31 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 24 34 42 49 61 65 72 49 49 40 27 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 17 27 35 42 54 58 65 42 42 33 20 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT