* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/05/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 52 58 63 74 87 103 122 126 128 128 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 52 58 63 74 87 103 53 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 37 43 50 58 70 87 109 57 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 3 6 8 8 6 12 9 12 4 1 5 14 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 0 -2 -2 -4 0 2 0 2 1 2 -4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 283 263 217 237 343 310 351 360 18 40 72 53 62 69 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 155 156 161 170 173 169 167 163 163 163 166 171 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 155 156 161 170 173 169 167 161 160 161 166 171 160 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 8 7 9 7 8 6 7 5 6 5 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 70 72 73 75 76 76 76 76 73 75 72 73 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 11 15 19 26 35 37 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 30 38 39 53 62 88 101 93 112 106 141 173 179 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 18 35 51 50 65 68 93 63 77 94 122 124 69 61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -7 -8 -3 0 1 6 4 5 4 2 -1 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 81 89 102 139 101 21 165 247 396 400 233 22 -216 -123 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 12 12 14 14 12 9 8 9 10 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 20 20 26 52 42 46 44 34 36 36 39 19 23 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. 2. 7. 15. 26. 26. 24. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 22. 28. 33. 44. 57. 73. 92. 96. 98. 98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 59.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/05/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.85 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 18.1% 10.8% 9.0% 6.7% 11.3% 14.3% 31.6% Logistic: 6.6% 39.7% 25.8% 19.4% 11.6% 37.5% 38.7% 41.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 23.0% 7.1% 1.5% 0.2% 5.5% 3.3% 51.2% Consensus: 4.3% 26.9% 14.6% 10.0% 6.2% 18.1% 18.8% 41.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/05/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/05/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 52 58 63 74 87 103 53 35 29 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 51 57 62 73 86 102 52 34 28 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 47 53 58 69 82 98 48 30 24 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 40 46 51 62 75 91 41 23 17 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT