* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 43 51 57 62 68 76 89 103 115 125 130 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 43 51 57 62 68 76 89 71 41 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 46 52 59 67 77 92 78 42 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 4 6 11 9 12 7 14 8 7 5 11 18 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 -2 -6 -2 -1 1 -1 1 -1 2 -5 -7 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 255 282 263 220 288 330 334 352 350 11 30 142 91 105 85 98 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.0 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 156 152 161 169 171 169 167 164 165 164 170 171 149 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 159 159 156 152 161 169 171 169 167 164 164 163 170 171 147 139 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 67 69 70 73 73 73 75 76 74 72 70 72 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 11 12 17 22 28 34 40 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 11 26 37 37 50 61 79 91 92 100 112 150 150 122 160 200 MB DIV 50 52 23 32 47 30 76 65 89 73 86 91 139 83 51 26 27 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -4 -4 -4 0 2 9 3 3 3 4 2 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 321 190 80 74 67 139 132 93 217 302 404 336 152 -87 -99 -92 -123 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 9 11 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 23 22 19 26 49 49 57 52 33 38 34 30 31 16 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 49. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 13. 21. 27. 32. 38. 46. 59. 73. 85. 95. 100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 58.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.7% 10.3% 8.6% 6.3% 10.5% 11.6% 26.5% Logistic: 5.9% 28.5% 15.2% 7.7% 3.7% 20.1% 33.1% 33.2% Bayesian: 3.3% 39.4% 11.5% 1.9% 0.4% 11.9% 5.1% 32.4% Consensus: 4.7% 28.2% 12.3% 6.1% 3.5% 14.2% 16.6% 30.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/05/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/05/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 35 37 43 51 57 62 68 76 89 71 41 32 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 34 40 48 54 59 65 73 86 68 38 29 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 36 44 50 55 61 69 82 64 34 25 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 29 37 43 48 54 62 75 57 27 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT