* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 33 35 40 49 56 58 67 76 87 99 106 113 111 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 33 35 40 49 56 58 67 76 87 99 106 113 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 38 42 47 52 59 72 86 98 108 110 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 7 3 9 9 8 11 8 11 6 9 8 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 0 1 -4 -2 -4 1 -1 -4 -5 -1 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 283 260 258 269 247 243 314 280 355 3 39 104 93 115 82 20 19 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 157 154 165 171 170 166 165 165 163 163 164 164 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 158 158 157 154 165 171 170 165 161 159 158 158 160 161 151 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 10 7 9 6 8 6 8 5 7 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 68 67 70 73 75 73 73 74 75 73 77 78 80 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 9 8 10 13 16 20 23 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 12 15 26 36 41 55 62 66 80 93 90 117 113 127 149 200 MB DIV 21 35 48 39 44 59 71 97 79 50 64 63 78 97 137 126 162 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 0 1 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 417 289 183 79 50 56 111 74 86 179 318 387 361 399 215 10 -17 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.2 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.4 59.4 60.4 61.4 63.6 66.1 68.5 70.8 73.0 74.8 76.3 77.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 25 23 23 23 18 31 57 47 58 78 57 38 47 42 42 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 43. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -6. -4. -1. 2. 7. 9. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 10. 19. 26. 28. 37. 46. 57. 69. 76. 83. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 57.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.1% 9.6% 8.1% 5.9% 10.2% 11.2% 26.0% Logistic: 4.9% 30.1% 15.4% 10.3% 6.3% 32.7% 44.0% 53.6% Bayesian: 2.5% 13.9% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 3.2% 12.5% 45.7% Consensus: 3.9% 19.7% 9.1% 6.3% 4.1% 15.4% 22.5% 41.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/04/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 32 33 33 35 40 49 56 58 67 76 87 99 106 113 66 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 32 37 46 53 55 64 73 84 96 103 110 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 34 43 50 52 61 70 81 93 100 107 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 27 36 43 45 54 63 74 86 93 100 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT