* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 25 29 33 40 44 47 50 55 61 66 71 76 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 25 29 33 40 44 47 50 55 61 66 71 76 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 35 36 39 42 46 51 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 11 11 8 10 8 11 14 12 14 10 11 8 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 -2 -5 -3 -4 -3 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 262 272 278 270 270 281 268 293 251 319 307 337 306 327 303 32 95 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 154 155 158 163 157 157 162 158 163 167 167 170 166 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 153 153 154 158 163 157 157 162 155 158 162 163 167 164 167 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 9 7 8 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 68 69 66 67 69 72 70 69 69 71 69 71 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 5 1 5 24 23 35 36 41 35 51 73 84 105 97 114 200 MB DIV -22 1 30 46 46 36 26 49 77 60 41 72 88 86 111 145 114 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -6 -4 -2 0 0 -1 3 6 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 552 554 496 461 394 191 105 189 280 275 267 245 295 379 367 400 194 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.5 14.7 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.9 55.8 56.5 57.4 59.3 61.4 63.7 65.8 68.1 70.0 71.8 73.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 10 12 11 12 11 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 51 49 44 33 23 25 23 36 45 76 82 83 91 43 43 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 20. 25. 29. 35. 40. 45. 48. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 4. 8. 15. 19. 22. 25. 30. 36. 41. 46. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 54.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.1% 7.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 16.2% 7.7% 3.8% 1.9% 7.6% 24.9% 36.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.4% Consensus: 2.4% 10.7% 5.5% 3.6% 0.7% 2.6% 11.6% 13.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/04/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/04/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 25 29 33 40 44 47 50 55 61 66 71 76 80 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 24 28 32 39 43 46 49 54 60 65 70 75 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 26 30 37 41 44 47 52 58 63 68 73 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 23 30 34 37 40 45 51 56 61 66 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT