* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 29 34 39 44 46 49 53 58 63 67 73 76 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 29 34 39 44 46 49 53 58 63 67 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 33 35 36 38 40 42 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 10 9 8 7 10 7 16 7 21 12 18 13 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 1 1 -2 -5 -3 -3 -6 -3 -2 -2 -3 2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 266 261 269 279 269 274 264 281 229 272 295 321 329 324 321 319 213 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 154 154 156 156 158 160 161 155 157 162 160 165 167 168 172 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 154 152 154 154 158 160 161 155 157 160 155 160 164 167 172 165 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 68 68 68 67 68 71 71 70 66 68 68 70 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 4 4 5 2 10 26 26 32 32 41 32 55 73 84 77 92 200 MB DIV -6 -17 8 32 49 13 24 30 57 66 49 37 58 67 71 89 120 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -4 -6 -4 -1 0 0 -2 2 4 0 -3 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 553 573 563 501 454 328 138 102 178 245 226 211 178 240 344 369 323 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.1 54.8 55.6 56.3 58.0 59.8 61.9 64.0 66.2 68.3 70.1 71.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 9 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 53 51 51 53 51 29 24 24 22 36 44 77 78 73 80 42 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 15. 20. 25. 29. 35. 40. 45. 48. 51. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 21. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 53.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.9% 9.8% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 29.9% 18.4% 10.0% 5.5% 17.8% 32.9% 66.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 7.2% Consensus: 3.6% 17.1% 9.7% 6.1% 1.9% 6.0% 15.0% 24.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/04/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 27 29 34 39 44 46 49 53 58 63 67 73 76 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 28 33 38 43 45 48 52 57 62 66 72 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 25 30 35 40 42 45 49 54 59 63 69 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 24 29 34 36 39 43 48 53 57 63 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT