* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 29 33 38 43 47 49 51 53 55 57 58 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 29 33 38 43 47 49 51 53 55 57 58 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 35 39 40 40 39 37 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 5 7 9 7 19 19 20 27 29 23 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 1 3 0 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 270 290 293 300 321 269 306 299 292 253 295 297 303 282 286 283 304 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 158 156 158 157 155 156 156 158 158 157 157 159 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 163 158 155 153 156 157 154 156 154 153 150 146 148 153 155 155 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 68 69 69 67 68 68 70 71 70 68 66 66 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 8 7 13 10 3 26 20 29 24 40 36 33 31 44 42 36 200 MB DIV 10 -14 -14 17 46 35 20 15 35 61 75 46 23 19 26 13 44 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 0 0 4 6 5 LAND (KM) 501 478 473 477 482 463 393 310 188 229 311 402 368 344 303 259 101 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.6 11.3 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.3 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.9 52.7 53.3 53.8 54.3 55.3 56.7 58.2 59.9 61.6 63.2 64.4 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 9 8 6 3 6 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 51 52 55 58 62 74 56 25 23 24 29 59 66 62 68 66 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 40. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 51.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.89 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.5% 10.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 21.0% 11.5% 4.4% 1.9% 13.6% 33.2% 65.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Consensus: 3.0% 13.9% 7.5% 4.3% 0.6% 4.6% 15.3% 22.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 29 33 38 43 47 49 51 53 55 57 58 61 63 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 28 32 37 42 46 48 50 52 54 56 57 60 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 29 34 39 43 45 47 49 51 53 54 57 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 32 36 38 40 42 44 46 47 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT