* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 48 51 54 56 58 61 62 63 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 48 51 54 56 58 61 62 63 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 34 37 42 46 47 47 45 42 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 8 6 2 6 8 8 9 21 18 22 28 30 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 1 1 4 0 -3 -1 -1 -4 -2 7 1 -1 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 197 256 281 286 296 299 303 301 306 269 275 293 287 283 287 274 294 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 164 164 162 160 158 159 158 154 153 154 155 155 155 158 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 164 162 160 156 156 158 157 154 151 151 148 143 142 148 148 150 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 65 65 65 64 64 63 64 65 71 66 64 63 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 5 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 5 6 6 5 12 19 16 16 20 28 23 30 24 33 15 200 MB DIV 19 8 -23 -22 11 51 0 29 22 39 41 49 33 16 24 27 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 516 494 481 468 461 455 463 418 344 241 256 367 433 451 390 283 183 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.6 11.4 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.7 51.4 51.9 52.4 52.9 53.8 55.0 56.3 57.9 59.4 61.0 62.3 63.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 6 3 2 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 49 49 50 53 60 75 62 27 21 23 28 35 41 57 74 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 34. 40. 44. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 36. 37. 38. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 50.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.92 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.2% 10.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 46.4% 37.3% 22.4% 12.0% 31.3% 46.4% 75.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 4.5% Consensus: 5.3% 22.0% 16.1% 10.3% 4.0% 10.5% 21.1% 26.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/03/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 48 51 54 56 58 61 62 63 64 66 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 35 41 47 50 53 55 57 60 61 62 63 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 37 43 46 49 51 53 56 57 58 59 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 36 39 42 44 46 49 50 51 52 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT