* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 36 43 49 52 54 55 59 62 64 66 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 36 43 49 52 54 55 59 62 64 66 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 37 40 44 47 49 49 48 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 8 10 10 8 10 9 6 7 12 15 19 19 19 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 2 0 1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -4 -5 -1 1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 121 216 273 283 283 300 282 313 293 293 245 274 268 285 270 285 275 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 169 164 160 160 158 160 163 158 153 151 150 153 155 156 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 169 164 157 156 155 158 162 158 150 145 144 143 143 146 147 151 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 7 9 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 66 67 68 67 66 67 66 69 69 69 66 64 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 14 9 6 7 0 22 17 22 17 29 34 39 34 45 56 200 MB DIV 89 34 24 0 -17 33 43 33 36 49 46 57 31 33 27 8 26 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 596 564 561 548 534 519 501 424 336 250 278 367 422 415 382 345 316 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.2 51.9 52.5 53.0 54.0 55.1 56.5 58.0 59.5 60.9 62.2 63.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 5 5 6 7 9 8 7 7 5 3 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 56 55 55 53 52 53 60 55 27 21 22 26 36 53 64 63 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 34. 40. 44. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 50.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.94 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.5% 10.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 38.2% 25.3% 17.8% 10.4% 27.3% 40.0% 74.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 2.7% 4.7% Consensus: 4.5% 20.7% 12.4% 8.8% 3.5% 9.3% 18.2% 26.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/03/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 31 36 43 49 52 54 55 59 62 64 66 68 71 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 42 48 51 53 54 58 61 63 65 67 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 38 44 47 49 50 54 57 59 61 63 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 36 39 41 42 46 49 51 53 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT