* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 57 60 58 60 59 61 61 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 57 60 58 60 59 61 61 62 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 48 51 54 56 57 56 54 51 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 8 11 10 7 11 10 15 15 17 19 27 20 30 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 8 3 1 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -6 -1 0 3 0 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 35 21 210 285 286 290 263 291 269 285 255 268 272 278 265 280 269 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 168 164 162 158 155 159 156 151 151 149 152 153 152 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 168 162 158 153 151 156 154 148 146 141 141 139 139 142 143 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.0 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 65 65 64 63 64 63 67 67 68 65 65 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 15 11 5 4 2 12 21 22 26 24 29 15 27 9 24 200 MB DIV 101 97 46 19 -15 0 38 2 45 42 48 52 31 2 33 0 -14 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 654 605 592 594 591 579 599 570 518 410 376 424 504 487 445 362 264 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3 12.0 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.1 50.8 51.4 51.9 52.9 53.8 55.0 56.4 57.9 59.4 60.7 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 7 4 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 56 57 57 57 52 48 45 37 29 35 35 40 42 42 47 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 44. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 32. 35. 33. 35. 34. 36. 36. 37. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 49.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.96 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 24.5% 13.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 44.2% 27.8% 18.5% 9.6% 24.1% 44.2% 70.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 25.5% 7.2% 0.5% 0.8% 2.3% 5.6% 7.4% Consensus: 6.4% 31.4% 16.2% 9.4% 3.5% 8.8% 21.2% 25.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/03/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 57 60 58 60 59 61 61 62 64 66 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 44 50 53 56 54 56 55 57 57 58 60 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 43 46 49 47 49 48 50 50 51 53 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 33 36 39 37 39 38 40 40 41 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT