* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 10/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 48 54 59 60 59 59 59 60 63 63 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 48 54 59 60 59 59 59 60 63 63 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 44 48 50 51 53 54 55 54 52 49 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 0 7 11 8 12 13 13 15 20 19 24 22 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 10 7 2 0 -3 -6 -6 -7 -3 -1 -1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 282 13 19 33 283 269 278 269 278 264 265 245 267 269 293 260 292 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 169 164 160 156 155 156 153 151 149 152 153 151 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 171 171 169 162 157 152 152 154 150 147 143 145 143 140 147 151 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 -54.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 66 64 63 64 64 63 65 68 68 66 63 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 8 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 26 19 10 -4 2 17 25 24 28 34 29 22 16 26 37 200 MB DIV 102 112 105 56 42 -19 12 25 42 50 50 80 81 13 -13 13 -23 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 738 679 645 635 647 635 628 643 599 499 420 417 478 454 348 271 235 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.6 13.6 14.4 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.5 49.4 50.1 50.7 51.6 52.7 53.8 55.3 56.8 58.4 59.9 61.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 6 5 5 6 8 9 9 8 7 5 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 46 54 55 57 58 53 46 39 35 40 43 38 42 48 69 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -0. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 34. 40. 44. 46. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 29. 34. 35. 34. 34. 34. 35. 38. 38. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 47.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 10/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.98 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 30.1% 18.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 34.4% 15.3% 5.5% 2.3% 10.2% 35.6% 50.6% Bayesian: 2.5% 24.5% 11.5% 0.8% 0.9% 2.7% 4.8% 1.0% Consensus: 4.8% 29.7% 15.2% 5.1% 1.1% 4.3% 19.8% 17.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 10/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 10/02/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 41 48 54 59 60 59 59 59 60 63 63 66 67 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 37 44 50 55 56 55 55 55 56 59 59 62 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 30 37 43 48 49 48 48 48 49 52 52 55 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 32 37 38 37 37 37 38 41 41 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT