* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 06/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 33 35 36 37 37 34 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 33 32 35 37 37 32 35 32 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 32 32 31 31 29 25 27 25 22 20 18 17 18 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 29 30 29 33 31 39 40 43 48 35 29 16 19 31 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 5 0 3 2 4 1 0 0 3 -5 0 -2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 248 239 222 249 246 236 253 253 264 254 256 253 259 255 275 292 308 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.5 26.2 26.9 28.0 27.6 27.7 26.9 26.9 26.1 25.2 23.9 22.9 21.2 21.7 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 106 113 122 137 132 135 126 125 116 108 98 92 84 86 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 94 94 100 109 123 119 124 114 112 102 94 85 81 75 77 71 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -54.1 -53.7 -54.3 -55.0 -56.2 -57.0 -57.3 -56.9 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 61 60 61 55 54 50 46 42 35 32 35 44 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 14 16 17 17 19 20 20 18 16 14 11 9 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 85 98 94 62 52 84 71 77 28 48 34 4 -4 -20 -21 -5 22 200 MB DIV 40 79 62 32 5 80 38 27 53 40 8 4 -6 14 25 18 -20 700-850 TADV 4 7 1 13 12 4 10 9 18 13 6 1 2 0 1 16 -1 LAND (KM) -21 -19 19 71 124 228 213 -97 266 426 508 666 819 821 771 735 652 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 7 10 12 16 17 16 14 13 11 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 10 32 6 3 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -16. -23. -32. -36. -39. -41. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. -4. -8. -13. -15. -18. -22. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.0 87.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.35 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 06/02/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 33 32 35 37 37 32 35 32 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 32 35 37 37 32 35 32 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 28 30 30 25 28 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 25 20 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT