* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 09/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 37 35 33 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 37 35 33 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 34 34 33 30 27 22 17 23 26 26 27 27 27 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 18 20 34 46 64 68 58 38 39 28 26 35 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 5 1 -2 -10 -8 -6 0 1 5 2 4 1 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 246 211 217 226 217 229 225 228 240 255 289 279 279 251 249 238 N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 26.6 25.9 25.5 24.7 24.6 24.3 23.9 20.3 20.4 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 120 113 110 103 103 101 100 84 84 136 133 131 136 143 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 111 104 101 95 94 92 91 79 80 127 120 118 126 134 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -55.2 -55.4 -56.3 -56.1 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 0 1 0 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 60 57 54 46 48 47 44 35 32 32 28 33 35 42 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 17 15 13 11 10 7 9 7 7 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 74 71 66 76 66 52 39 24 -24 -13 10 -6 4 -34 -27 N/A 200 MB DIV 73 73 77 54 42 34 44 62 0 -17 -18 -26 -22 18 -5 -84 N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 12 14 12 10 1 -14 -33 -35 -49 -96 -28 -16 20 40 N/A LAND (KM) 338 404 401 380 375 369 366 318 247 -29 -483 -713 -920 -718 -430 -14 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.5 23.7 25.9 28.0 29.9 30.9 30.2 28.9 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.6 20.2 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.0 18.6 16.8 14.1 9.6 4.5 -0.1 -3.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 14 17 22 22 20 14 13 19 25 N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 2 3 12 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. -8. -20. -31. -39. -43. -46. -49. -52. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -19. -22. -22. -23. -24. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. -3. -12. -26. -30. -35. -33. -33. -32. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 19.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 09/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.3% 7.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 5.9% 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.1% 3.6% 3.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 09/23/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 36 37 35 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 31 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT