* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 09/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 29 29 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 29 29 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 26 25 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 17 16 22 32 50 67 65 54 45 47 38 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 7 5 6 -1 -4 -6 -7 -2 2 8 1 7 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 234 207 210 217 210 225 223 228 236 256 267 261 251 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.6 24.7 24.6 23.8 22.5 19.2 22.3 27.4 27.3 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 123 122 117 110 104 103 98 93 81 93 133 132 141 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 117 113 111 107 101 95 95 90 87 78 88 124 122 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.8 -55.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 5 2 3 1 2 0 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 65 59 58 51 49 51 49 42 33 34 36 41 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 76 64 73 71 47 41 0 -4 -43 -19 -20 -30 -80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 68 76 84 41 21 29 27 31 -20 -36 4 -13 -50 -174 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 6 8 11 1 1 -12 -24 -46 -37 -57 -73 -51 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 308 421 478 468 439 364 294 275 171 98 -308 -525 -648 -302 5 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 21.3 23.3 25.5 27.3 29.2 30.2 30.5 30.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.7 20.4 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.5 19.4 17.8 15.5 11.8 6.4 0.6 -4.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 8 10 12 14 15 22 25 25 22 22 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -24. -35. -41. -47. -54. -58. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 1. -7. -17. -26. -30. -31. -34. -33. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 19.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 09/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.9% 5.6% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 09/23/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 29 29 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 27 27 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 22 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT