* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 09/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 36 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 36 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 29 27 23 20 25 26 27 27 27 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 2 4 7 12 18 28 48 64 57 43 42 32 32 30 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 9 12 11 8 0 -3 -4 -6 3 0 3 3 9 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 1 327 303 145 173 196 207 222 225 233 248 264 271 274 270 283 N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.1 24.8 23.1 23.0 22.2 19.6 20.4 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 130 125 125 104 94 94 92 82 85 137 133 131 131 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 123 120 116 117 97 87 87 86 78 81 130 122 118 117 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -55.5 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 4 3 2 4 0 2 1 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 62 57 56 48 50 48 48 37 30 30 29 29 31 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 17 16 16 14 12 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 84 79 79 83 77 52 29 16 23 -25 -46 -32 -12 -18 -27 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 51 62 75 56 39 39 39 58 1 -30 -8 -38 -5 -96 -115 N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -1 -1 1 5 6 5 -5 -15 -15 -45 -100 -32 -38 0 N/A LAND (KM) 219 329 391 424 438 401 241 143 101 33 -115 -504 -779 -697 -590 -425 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.4 17.0 18.6 20.7 23.0 25.4 28.2 30.5 30.6 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.5 21.0 21.1 20.9 20.2 19.3 17.8 15.9 13.0 8.4 2.6 -3.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 6 6 7 10 12 14 16 22 24 26 23 17 13 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 6 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 2 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 1. -8. -19. -25. -30. -36. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 11. 3. -8. -13. -16. -17. -17. -14. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 19.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 09/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 11.9% 8.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.7% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 3.4% 3.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.7% 4.0% 2.8% 0.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 09/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 36 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 36 37 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 31 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT