* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 09/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 38 41 44 49 47 39 30 21 18 16 18 22 24 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 38 41 44 49 47 39 30 25 26 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 33 36 39 40 39 37 33 28 25 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 2 4 9 15 19 32 53 65 44 35 36 28 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 9 12 11 2 0 -2 -5 -2 2 1 4 3 7 10 SHEAR DIR 177 57 340 343 130 169 192 217 220 227 235 250 268 275 281 296 305 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.1 27.1 24.1 22.3 22.4 22.2 19.0 20.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 132 132 124 125 100 90 91 92 80 85 133 131 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 125 121 122 115 117 93 84 86 86 76 80 124 118 114 114 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 7 6 7 3 4 1 2 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 73 69 66 65 62 56 51 49 49 49 48 34 32 27 30 25 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 17 17 16 14 13 11 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 88 87 76 79 80 69 44 24 9 7 -57 -58 -23 -8 27 -20 200 MB DIV 40 35 49 61 77 44 26 56 58 48 -31 -38 -13 -36 -19 -52 -42 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -5 -2 -1 1 3 8 -2 -8 -26 -25 -54 -88 -43 -12 -1 LAND (KM) 163 312 389 426 435 442 376 188 111 63 71 -220 -591 -892 -893 -868 -784 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.9 17.2 18.8 20.8 23.1 25.7 28.7 30.4 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.4 21.1 21.4 21.4 20.8 20.0 18.8 17.3 15.3 12.1 7.3 1.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 10 5 4 5 8 10 13 14 18 22 23 24 19 12 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 8 9 8 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 17. 20. 22. 21. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. -1. -11. -18. -23. -29. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 13. 16. 19. 24. 22. 14. 5. -4. -7. -9. -7. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 19.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 09/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.99 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.8% 9.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 21.9% 13.5% 7.5% 2.5% 13.0% 11.5% 3.4% Bayesian: 3.5% 5.7% 4.9% 0.4% 0.2% 2.4% 4.7% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 14.1% 9.4% 5.3% 0.9% 5.2% 8.8% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 09/22/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 36 38 41 44 49 47 39 30 25 26 26 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 34 37 40 45 43 35 26 21 22 22 23 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 28 31 34 39 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 28 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT