* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 09/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 46 48 46 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 35 38 42 47 50 48 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 31 33 36 39 39 37 34 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 2 7 18 21 33 42 60 70 77 62 67 69 63 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 4 2 -2 -7 -9 -12 -4 -4 -10 -6 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 212 175 222 243 208 208 224 222 223 226 237 245 260 271 281 274 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.1 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 23.9 22.0 22.4 28.0 28.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 138 132 126 112 109 107 105 103 104 101 91 94 142 143 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 132 126 119 105 100 97 94 91 94 93 84 89 136 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 0 2 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 73 70 60 51 45 43 39 40 39 36 41 38 42 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 16 17 18 19 17 15 13 12 8 7 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 75 62 52 54 60 57 54 61 44 42 8 -11 -20 -60 -27 N/A 200 MB DIV 63 76 99 80 78 61 50 49 40 31 38 -27 -35 22 15 -123 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 3 13 19 10 5 -10 -20 -33 -1 -34 27 24 N/A LAND (KM) -97 6 121 207 313 328 374 463 495 456 370 237 -14 -169 -453 -69 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.3 17.1 18.1 20.1 22.5 24.8 26.9 28.4 29.7 31.6 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.0 20.5 20.3 19.5 18.2 16.2 12.4 7.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 12 11 11 9 15 21 21 28 27 28 N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 11 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. -0. -9. -21. -33. -42. -54. -65. -71. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -6. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 21. 23. 21. 12. 4. -11. -21. -32. -40. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 16.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 09/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 17.0% 10.5% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 35.7% 14.5% 2.2% 1.1% 6.0% 5.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 2.7% 9.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 20.7% 8.8% 3.5% 0.4% 2.3% 5.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 09/22/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 31 35 38 42 47 50 48 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 37 42 45 43 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 32 37 40 38 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 30 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT