* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 08/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 28 34 41 47 47 45 45 43 41 38 37 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 28 34 41 47 47 45 45 43 41 38 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 29 31 31 29 25 22 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 12 11 11 11 12 15 13 25 31 37 32 42 40 42 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 -5 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 -10 -7 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 81 90 88 104 114 159 152 169 170 217 247 257 280 297 309 309 318 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 129 126 125 124 122 125 127 130 135 141 146 145 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 120 119 115 116 115 114 119 123 127 133 138 140 135 136 135 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 62 60 61 58 60 57 56 54 57 52 57 54 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 49 41 39 64 71 82 89 81 61 22 -42 -65 -103 -107 -106 200 MB DIV -1 -9 -1 10 12 52 33 37 52 16 -22 -33 -19 -24 -8 -2 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 6 12 14 24 19 23 7 10 -1 LAND (KM) 2000 1980 1935 1916 1898 1826 1749 1645 1541 1438 1380 1346 1213 962 778 697 695 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.8 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.2 36.8 37.4 37.8 38.2 39.0 40.0 41.3 43.1 45.3 47.9 50.8 53.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 7 10 12 14 17 17 15 13 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 26 25 20 12 7 5 10 16 22 31 41 40 33 31 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -5. -7. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 27. 25. 25. 23. 21. 18. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.7 36.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 08/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.8% 3.4% 6.3% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 0.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 2.1% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902022 INVEST 08/23/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 08/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 22 23 28 34 41 47 47 45 45 43 41 38 37 38 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 21 26 32 39 45 45 43 43 41 39 36 35 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 22 28 35 41 41 39 39 37 35 32 31 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT