* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 08/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 23 28 35 41 48 54 57 60 61 60 59 59 62 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 23 28 35 41 48 54 57 60 61 60 59 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 18 17 17 18 20 23 27 32 37 40 41 38 36 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 18 15 14 10 3 7 5 14 15 24 27 28 29 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 -1 -6 -1 0 2 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 60 73 81 75 80 135 114 150 156 172 221 229 254 271 288 292 305 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 131 128 126 124 122 121 127 128 129 136 137 139 143 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 124 120 116 114 113 111 119 121 123 133 135 135 137 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 69 63 61 61 60 59 57 56 55 53 56 57 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 49 43 38 38 51 69 81 88 73 44 6 -24 -56 -68 -76 200 MB DIV -10 3 -6 0 4 12 34 29 52 35 -23 -47 -57 -34 -3 -30 7 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 2 8 14 12 7 6 1 LAND (KM) 1972 1877 1816 1781 1756 1718 1651 1588 1484 1392 1295 1248 1193 1054 918 682 491 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.6 38.4 39.0 39.5 40.2 41.1 42.0 43.3 44.9 46.8 49.0 51.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 7 6 4 4 5 5 7 8 10 13 14 13 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 20 12 9 7 6 7 15 16 24 25 28 26 28 41 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 28. 34. 37. 40. 41. 40. 39. 39. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 36.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 08/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 11.1% 6.2% 3.1% 3.1% 4.9% 7.5% 22.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% Consensus: 0.8% 4.2% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 2.5% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902022 INVEST 08/23/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 08/23/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 20 21 23 28 35 41 48 54 57 60 61 60 59 59 62 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 28 35 41 48 54 57 60 61 60 59 59 62 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 24 31 37 44 50 53 56 57 56 55 55 58 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT