* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 08/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 44 53 61 64 69 70 68 66 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 44 53 61 64 69 70 68 66 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 25 31 37 43 47 49 47 44 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 17 12 7 1 1 8 8 18 19 29 28 34 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 61 74 83 72 74 157 138 218 188 223 250 258 279 285 299 302 SST (C) 26.8 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 125 123 122 120 121 123 125 126 131 136 134 137 144 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 118 116 114 110 111 113 116 118 125 131 131 134 140 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 65 64 59 60 58 60 59 59 57 58 57 59 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 65 63 65 64 62 47 38 49 65 76 80 67 41 8 -25 -53 -65 200 MB DIV -2 11 17 3 10 2 3 17 26 32 11 -14 -41 6 18 3 -11 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 6 2 1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1975 1969 1888 1826 1767 1693 1618 1542 1439 1337 1234 1159 1126 953 879 635 404 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.3 15.1 14.9 15.1 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.9 37.5 38.6 39.4 40.3 41.6 42.6 43.6 44.6 45.9 47.4 49.4 51.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 9 8 8 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 13 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 19 13 7 5 5 8 10 13 23 16 24 22 17 34 34 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 253 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 33. 41. 44. 49. 50. 48. 46. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.6 35.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 08/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 2.7% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 2.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902022 INVEST 08/23/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 08/23/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 44 53 61 64 69 70 68 66 65 65 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 24 30 37 43 52 60 63 68 69 67 65 64 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 34 40 49 57 60 65 66 64 62 61 61 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT