* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 08/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 40 45 50 56 61 63 63 60 60 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 40 45 50 56 61 63 63 60 60 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 32 36 42 47 49 51 50 47 46 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 15 11 6 1 8 14 15 16 25 25 21 17 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 4 -1 1 0 1 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 77 61 63 71 71 51 164 240 212 237 232 248 247 269 273 310 309 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 118 120 118 117 121 124 126 130 134 135 143 148 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 116 111 111 113 109 107 111 115 118 122 128 129 137 141 144 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 65 66 62 60 59 59 58 57 57 56 56 57 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 59 60 64 65 67 56 53 53 73 69 62 44 19 -18 -41 -70 -74 200 MB DIV -2 7 9 12 19 3 -11 5 10 27 0 -5 -33 10 10 3 3 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 0 0 3 2 2 2 4 4 7 11 11 1 6 -4 LAND (KM) 1730 1891 2009 2066 2003 1903 1842 1746 1652 1542 1463 1403 1292 1154 899 708 631 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.6 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.6 35.1 36.2 37.2 38.1 39.9 41.2 42.6 43.9 45.6 47.4 49.7 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 10 9 9 8 6 6 7 9 9 12 13 14 14 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 5 8 4 5 10 10 13 21 31 30 29 41 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 373 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 15. 20. 25. 31. 36. 38. 38. 35. 35. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 33.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 08/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.7% 7.1% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.1% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 2.4% 2.9% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.4% 3.5% 2.7% 0.2% 0.9% 3.7% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 08/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 40 45 50 56 61 63 63 60 60 62 66 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 39 44 49 55 60 62 62 59 59 61 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 35 40 45 51 56 58 58 55 55 57 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 27 32 37 43 48 50 50 47 47 49 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT