* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 08/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 48 53 56 59 61 62 61 61 65 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 48 53 56 59 61 62 61 61 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 38 42 46 47 47 46 44 42 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 14 10 6 3 11 17 25 22 27 28 26 24 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 0 1 3 0 0 -3 -2 -2 1 1 -1 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 77 88 70 68 77 41 303 252 228 231 234 240 247 260 269 273 273 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 121 121 116 117 116 116 119 124 127 131 136 141 149 153 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 114 113 109 109 106 107 110 115 119 124 130 136 143 146 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 66 64 65 58 57 58 58 57 58 55 57 54 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 50 60 60 66 67 63 53 59 74 68 62 57 31 21 4 0 -9 200 MB DIV 6 -1 5 15 26 15 11 -1 14 18 10 7 7 14 22 0 26 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 0 1 3 4 3 4 2 4 8 4 2 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 1455 1583 1702 1810 1908 2136 2074 1984 1877 1749 1644 1565 1390 1197 888 606 398 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.3 35.2 37.3 38.9 40.5 42.2 44.1 46.3 48.7 51.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 10 7 8 8 9 11 12 14 15 14 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 7 7 2 2 3 3 6 12 16 27 30 31 36 32 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 36. 36. 40. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 31.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 08/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.9% 7.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.3% 5.0% 3.2% 2.2% 8.5% 8.4% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 7.5% 4.4% 3.5% 0.8% 2.9% 3.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 08/22/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 48 53 56 59 61 62 61 61 65 65 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 45 50 53 56 58 59 58 58 62 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 40 45 48 51 53 54 53 53 57 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 31 36 39 42 44 45 44 44 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT