* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 08/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 47 50 52 52 53 53 53 53 55 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 47 50 52 52 53 53 53 53 55 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 43 43 41 39 36 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 14 11 12 7 5 7 18 23 27 26 34 32 31 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 1 2 0 -2 3 0 1 6 0 0 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 84 92 84 65 68 6 268 266 239 250 234 244 239 253 247 246 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 115 117 121 116 116 116 117 122 126 131 134 136 143 147 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 112 108 110 114 109 108 106 109 114 118 123 128 130 137 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 65 63 61 58 58 59 57 56 58 55 56 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 54 63 63 74 55 62 59 86 64 68 61 38 29 25 18 200 MB DIV 4 6 5 20 31 23 7 -7 16 15 7 5 0 -14 5 36 32 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 0 6 4 4 7 -5 2 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1273 1402 1510 1617 1736 1954 2151 2062 1943 1816 1688 1588 1442 1244 1067 837 626 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.6 35.6 37.6 39.2 41.1 43.0 45.2 47.5 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 2 9 1 2 3 4 9 12 23 29 29 24 30 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 29.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 08/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.8% 7.6% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 17.5% 9.5% 4.5% 4.2% 13.8% 15.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.7% 0.3% Consensus: 3.8% 12.8% 6.2% 3.8% 1.4% 5.0% 5.6% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 08/22/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 47 50 52 52 53 53 53 53 55 58 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 40 44 47 49 49 50 50 50 50 52 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 35 39 42 44 44 45 45 45 45 47 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 27 31 34 36 36 37 37 37 37 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT