* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 05/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 38 35 32 31 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 30 28 28 27 27 27 29 29 28 30 30 32 32 33 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 31 34 37 41 44 45 45 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 24 30 33 32 32 20 14 11 16 15 17 12 18 18 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 3 6 1 5 1 6 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 252 233 220 216 209 225 251 321 280 232 229 229 270 286 322 357 334 SST (C) 27.6 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.3 21.7 20.4 23.1 24.3 23.6 24.0 23.9 19.4 20.6 18.5 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 119 114 112 108 101 86 80 91 97 92 97 98 81 87 80 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 107 101 99 95 89 76 72 78 81 77 83 86 75 80 75 74 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.9 -56.5 -56.9 -57.0 -57.9 -57.9 -58.6 -58.2 -58.2 -58.2 -58.3 -58.6 -59.2 -59.2 -59.9 -60.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 65 63 62 59 59 54 53 49 49 49 50 45 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 10 9 8 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -46 -33 -36 -53 -79 -107 -130 -157 -137 -151 -138 -86 -112 -124 -164 200 MB DIV 27 69 47 40 70 -86 -18 -35 -5 -36 -15 -29 15 -4 -25 -41 -65 700-850 TADV 17 26 23 20 11 22 19 11 -2 -3 -1 1 6 7 2 7 -28 LAND (KM) 163 50 -96 -247 -290 -258 -140 -7 161 246 310 374 378 367 458 657 960 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.9 31.2 32.4 33.4 35.0 36.2 36.6 36.2 35.7 35.7 36.5 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.1 86.3 85.2 83.8 81.2 78.4 76.0 74.0 73.0 72.3 71.6 69.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 4 3 8 13 22 27 26 21 HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 8. 5. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.5 87.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 05/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 8.4% 6.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.6% 2.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902022 INVEST 05/23/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 05/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 30 28 28 27 27 27 29 29 28 30 30 32 32 33 37 18HR AGO 30 29 26 24 24 23 23 23 25 25 24 26 26 28 28 29 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 24 23 23 23 25 25 24 26 26 28 28 29 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 19 19 21 21 20 22 22 24 24 25 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT