* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902022 05/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 36 37 38 40 42 43 45 44 43 42 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 32 33 34 34 33 32 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 22 25 26 27 27 27 34 39 44 48 51 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 17 23 31 21 16 2 3 3 7 8 17 15 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 0 0 0 -2 -3 7 3 5 1 1 5 9 2 2 SHEAR DIR 239 245 242 224 210 221 234 309 133 259 212 311 311 353 360 17 141 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.4 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.0 23.0 21.4 19.3 14.4 12.2 7.0 6.7 2.6 12.5 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 130 112 109 109 105 92 84 77 69 68 68 71 70 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 115 100 97 94 91 80 74 70 65 66 67 70 N/A 71 70 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -56.3 -56.6 -57.2 -57.9 -58.1 -58.3 -58.4 -58.4 -58.7 -59.3 -59.8 -60.3 -61.0 -61.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 5 4 5 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 61 61 59 57 58 57 58 58 59 61 64 67 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -39 -37 -59 -41 -61 -79 -124 -120 -156 -143 -107 -48 -1 -48 -65 -72 200 MB DIV 28 23 81 30 38 17 -100 21 -6 -3 -33 -15 68 19 -7 -1 7 700-850 TADV 6 15 25 26 10 18 17 26 26 16 29 7 44 35 207 92 20 LAND (KM) 294 221 182 60 -88 -210 -160 -188 -126 -22 64 77 56 132 421 1193 1348 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.6 28.7 29.8 30.8 32.4 33.9 35.3 36.5 37.6 39.0 40.8 43.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.6 87.1 86.4 85.3 83.3 81.4 79.7 77.8 76.0 73.9 71.0 66.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 11 11 9 9 10 13 17 26 36 38 32 28 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 13. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 19. 18. 17. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 88.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902022 INVEST 05/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 7.2% 5.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902022 INVEST 05/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902022 INVEST 05/22/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 32 33 34 34 33 32 36 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 25 25 26 26 26 26 31 32 33 33 32 31 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 21 21 22 22 22 22 27 28 29 29 28 27 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT