* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/10/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 37 36 32 29 27 23 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 38 38 31 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 22 21 17 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -4 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 222 231 237 218 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.6 24.1 22.7 21.8 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 103 100 92 88 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 93 89 83 81 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.9 2.6 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 61 59 61 61 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 27 23 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 91 72 42 78 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 117 100 92 70 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 11 21 29 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -79 9 23 -131 -272 -403 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.9 29.8 31.3 32.7 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.8 84.0 84.0 83.9 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 14 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -16. -18. -22. -23. -27. -29. -32. -35. -41. -46. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.0 81.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.13 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.6% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 41 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 34 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT