* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/10/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 62 57 49 37 33 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 50 41 37 33 29 28 28 29 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 51 41 38 34 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 21 19 23 19 25 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 -5 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 240 214 229 243 204 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 25.4 24.7 23.5 22.7 20.6 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 110 104 96 92 85 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 99 93 86 83 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 62 62 61 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 29 24 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 94 91 71 48 90 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 103 126 115 82 97 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 18 19 27 27 -8 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 33 -64 -8 -25 -105 -252 -297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.9 31.0 34.5 38.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.9 81.3 82.6 83.3 83.9 82.2 78.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 15 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -28. -31. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -3. -8. -16. -28. -32. -37. -41. -45. -49. -52. -54. -56. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.3 79.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 13.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 50 41 37 33 29 28 28 29 29 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 55 51 47 43 42 42 43 43 43 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 57 53 49 48 48 49 49 49 49 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 47 46 46 47 47 47 47 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT