* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/10/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 62 54 45 41 38 34 31 28 25 23 20 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 52 41 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 54 43 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 31 22 22 23 15 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 246 235 221 223 230 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.6 25.5 24.5 23.9 21.0 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 133 110 103 98 85 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 120 99 92 88 79 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.3 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 60 64 62 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 32 30 23 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 105 97 91 77 77 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 62 78 103 104 74 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 32 20 19 28 27 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 164 47 -55 -40 -2 -203 -334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.3 27.9 28.8 29.7 32.5 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.8 81.1 82.3 83.4 83.2 80.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 12 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 48 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -20. -24. -27. -31. -34. -37. -40. -42. -45. -47. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.7 78.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 12.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/10/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 52 41 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 51 40 36 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 50 46 39 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 44 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT